German inflation went up a tenth in August, core inflation did not move and services fell again, and energy at 10.5 percent accounts for the whole of it

Ten and a half percent. That is what German energy prices did in the year to August, up from 8.3 percent in July and 3.4 percent in June, and it is the reason the country's inflation rate moved at all.

The Federal Statistical Office put provisional consumer price inflation at 2.9 percent for August, against 2.8 percent in July, and prices up 0.2 percent on the month. The harmonised measure, the one the European Central Bank watches, carries the same two figures.

Core inflation did not move. It is 2.4 percent, exactly where it was in July.

The composition is the story

Energy carries a weight of 73.90 per thousand in the German basket, which is 7.39 percent of household spending. At 10.5 percent it contributes roughly 0.78 percentage points of the headline, against about 0.61 points in July. That gain of some 0.17 points is more than the whole 0.1 point rise in the headline, and two other lines took the difference back out: food inflation fell from 0.4 percent to 0.1 percent, and services fell from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent. Those three sums come to about plus 0.09 points, which is the observed move. The figures are rounded rates multiplied by rounded weights, so the arithmetic is close rather than exact.

Services have now fallen for two consecutive months, from 3.1 percent in June. Goods went the other way, from 1.7 percent in June to 2.5 in July and 3.0 in August.

That crossing is worth marking. In the four months the release prints, August is the only one in which goods inflation runs hotter than services inflation, and it inverts the pattern that has carried European inflation since the energy shock ended.

What is not settled

These are provisional numbers. Destatis publishes the final August results on 10 September.

The release also carries a caveat that will matter to anyone comparing across the year. From January 2026 the harmonised index changed substantially in both methodology and classification, and it has been presented on a 2025 base since then. The national consumer price index and the harmonised index are drawn from the same underlying data but differ in coverage, weighting and method, and the statistical office says so in the same document that reports both at 2.9 percent.

No reason is given for the energy move. The release states the rate, states the two months before it, and stops there.