Economics
Consumer prices fell 0.4 percent in June as energy costs dropped
Annual CPI inflation slowed to 3.5 percent, from 4.2 percent in May. Core CPI was flat on the month.
Economics
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Economics · Labor
Marc Andreessen and Mervyn King will co-lead the Fed's five policy task forces
The Fed named 15 outside co-leads across task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data, jobs and inflation.
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Economics · Policy
The US is paying about $24bn a week in interest on the federal debt
Interest cost $857bn in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, up 13 percent, as the deficit neared $1.4tn.
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Economics · Inflation
The IMF cut 2026 global growth to 3.0 percent and raised inflation to 4.7 percent
The Fund said global disinflation has stalled and assumes Hormuz shipping normalises from mid-July.
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Economics · Policy
Existing home sales fell 2.4 percent in June while the median price hit a record $440,600
Sales ran at a 4.09 million annual rate. It was the 36th straight month of year-over-year price gains.
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Economics · Policy
June Fed minutes show a few officials saw a case for raising rates immediately
The 12-0 hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent concealed a committee split on where rates should sit in December.
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Economics · Labor
Employers added 57,000 jobs in June and April and May were revised down by 74,000
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent as participation dropped 0.3 points, to 61.5 percent.
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Economics · Policy
The trade deficit widened to $77.6bn in May as capital goods imports hit a record
The gap rose $23.0bn from a revised $54.6bn in April. Capital goods imports reached $127.9bn.
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Economics · Policy
Money supply is back in the Fed's monetary policy report under Warsh
M2 ran 4.7 percent higher in the first five months of 2026 than a year earlier, closer to the range seen in the 2010s.
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Economics · Policy
Credit card balances shrank in May after two months of double-digit growth
Revolving credit fell at a 4.7 percent annual rate. Total consumer credit was unchanged, at $5,154.5bn.
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Small Business
Small business optimism rose to 97.4 in June, a four-month high
The NFIB index gained 2.1 points from 95.3 in May. Inflation is now the top problem for 21 percent of owners.
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Personal Finance
Social Security COLA estimates for 2027 drop to between 3.7 and 3.8 percent
Cooler June inflation cut one 2027 estimate to 3.7 percent, from 4.7 percent a month earlier.
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Economics · Inflation
Warsh told Congress the Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation
In his first testimony as Fed chairman, Warsh gave no rate signal. The target range stands at 3.5 to 3.75 percent.
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Economics · Inflation
Wholesale prices fell 0.3 percent in June, the first monthly drop since August 2025
The producer price index declined against a consensus for no change. Annual PPI ran at 5.5 percent.
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Economics · Policy
The interest "record" holds by 0.09 of a point, and only if you start counting in 1940
Interest is said to be eating more of federal revenue than ever. It depends on two arbitrary choices. Change either and the record goes away.
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Economics · Inflation
Prices fell twice in June. That has happened 16 times before, and never like this.
Joint CPI and PPI declines are ordinary. Every previous one arrived with inflation at or below 2.2 percent. This one arrived at 3.5.
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