Social Security COLA estimates for 2027 drop to between 3.7 and 3.8 percent

Estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment fell after the June inflation report. Lorie Konish at CNBC reported the revised figures. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, now projects 3.7 percent, down from the 4.7 percent she projected a month earlier. The Senior Citizens League holds its estimate at 3.8 percent, unchanged from last month.

Johnson said in a statement that the June data showed a drop in inflation rarely seen over the past five years. The Social Security Administration calculates the official adjustment from July, August and September CPI data and announces it on October 14. The 2026 adjustment was 2.8 percent, paid to more than 75 million beneficiaries. The 10-year average is 3.1 percent.