Tokyo inflation quickened to 2.0 percent in July, and the largest single drag on it is a nursery fee that is now zero
Sitting in the contribution table of Friday's Tokyo release is a line reading minus 100.0 percent.
Start with the headline. Japan's Statistics Bureau published the July consumer price index for the ku-area of Tokyo on Friday, the mid-month preliminary reading it puts out ahead of the national figure as a leading indicator. The index stood at 113.2 against a 2020 base of 100, up 2.0 percent on a year earlier and 0.4 percent on June after seasonal adjustment. June's annual rate was 1.7 percent.
Both of the measures the Bank of Japan watches moved up with it. Excluding fresh food, the index rose 1.9 percent against 1.6 percent in June, the fastest since January. Excluding fresh food and energy as well, it rose 2.0 percent against 1.9 percent, the fastest since March. A year ago those same two readings were 2.9 percent and 3.1 percent.
What is pushing, and what is pulling
Rent carried the most weight on the upside, contributing 0.29 points on a rise of 1.3 percent, with privately let rents up 1.7 percent. Eating out added 0.26 points and rose 4.6 percent, and inside that category restaurant sushi rose 20.0 percent. Prepared foods rose 3.8 percent, with boxed bento up 26.7 percent, and confectionery rose 5.4 percent. Fresh fish and shellfish rose 11.4 percent, tuna 15.4 percent, meat 5.2 percent and domestically produced beef 12.1 percent. Fresh vegetables rose 4.6 percent and tomatoes 8.8 percent. Commuter season tickets on JR rose 17.3 percent, and overseas package tours 7.0 percent.
Then there is the other direction, and it is one item.
The release records nursery school fees at minus 100.0 percent over the year, taking 0.46 points off the headline rate on its own, and puts the miscellaneous sub-category containing them at minus 25.8 percent, worth minus 0.45 points. A price index cannot fall further than 100 percent. That reading means the surveyed fee is now nil. The Statistics Bureau states the number in its contribution table and offers no account of why it is what it is, so neither does this brief.