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US Treasury par yield curve · Jul 29 · Source: U.S. Treasury
Thursday, July 30, 2026
U.S. Edition
MONEY & WORLD
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Personal income

The household saving rate fell to 2.7 percent in June, and the monthly PCE price index went negative in the same quarter its annualised rate hit 5.1 percent

Money & World
The Editorial Team ·
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2.7 percent. That is the share of after-tax income American households saved in June, against 3.0 percent reported for May.

Personal income rose $54.9bn, or 0.2 percent on the month. Disposable income rose $48.3bn, also 0.2 percent. Consumer spending rose $65.2bn, or 0.3 percent. Spending grew faster than the income available to fund it, and personal saving fell to $646.1bn from the $704.2bn the May release reported.

Where the income came from

The Bureau of Economic Analysis attributes the June increase to three things and one subtraction. Compensation rose, led by private wages and salaries. Income receipts on assets rose, through both dividends and interest. Government social benefits rose, led by Medicare and by social security.

Against that, farm proprietors' income fell, which BEA says reflects the pattern of payments to farmers under the American Relief Act of 2025. That is a timing effect in a programme, not a change in farm conditions.

April and May estimates were revised using updated Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data, and the revisions to government social benefits were led by Medicaid.

The month was cool. The quarter was not.

From May, the PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy it increased 0.1 percent. Measured against June last year, the index is up 3.7 percent, and 3.3 percent excluding food and energy.

Now put that next to the other release BEA published at the same minute. The advance estimate of second quarter GDP puts the PCE price index at an annual rate of 5.1 percent for the quarter, against 4.6 percent in the first. A quarter running at 5.1 percent annualised cannot end with a negative month unless it began with hot ones, and the monthly table in this release says exactly that: the PCE price index rose 0.5 percent in May and fell 0.1 percent in June.

That is the whole shape of the quarter in two figures.

What was bought

Of the $65.2bn increase in current-dollar spending, $58.2bn was services and $7.0bn was goods. Real consumer spending rose $68.0bn, or 0.4 percent, the same rate as in May. Real disposable income rose 0.3 percent, which is more than the 0.2 percent that nominal disposable income rose, because the price index fell over the month.

Today's release also revises May. Current-dollar consumer spending for that month is now shown at 0.9 percent, against the 0.7 percent published on 25 June. The release does not restate May's saving rate.

The July figures are due on 26 August.

The document: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 'Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026', release BEA 26-36, embargoed until 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday, July 30, 2026, five pages, PDF retrieved and text extracted by this desk at 08:34 Eastern on 30 July 2026. Technical contacts Lisa Mataloni (Personal Income) and Harvey Davis (PCE); media contact Connie O'Connell. Page 1, verbatim: 'Personal income increased $54.9 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)-personal income less personal current taxes-increased $48.3 billion (0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.2 billion (0.3 percent).' And: 'Personal outlays-the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments-increased $70.0 billion in June. Personal saving was $646.1 billion in June, and the personal saving rate-personal saving as a percentage of DPI-was 2.7 percent.' And: 'The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, and government social benefits that were partly offset by a decrease in farm proprietors' income.' Page 2, verbatim: 'The $65.2 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in June reflected increases of $58.2 billion in spending on services and $7.0 billion in spending on goods.' And: 'Real PCE increased $68.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in June.' And: 'From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.' And: 'From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago.' Page 3 table 'Personal Income and Related Measures', percent change from preceding month, May then June: current-dollar personal income 0.7 / 0.2; current-dollar DPI 0.7 / 0.2; real DPI 0.2 / 0.3; current-dollar PCE 0.9 / 0.3; real PCE 0.4 / 0.4; PCE price index 0.5 / -0.1; PCE price index excluding food and energy 0.3 / 0.1. Next release 26 August 2026. Page 4 Technical Notes: within compensation the increase was led by private wages and salaries based on BLS Current Employment Statistics; personal income receipts on assets reflected increases in both dividend income and interest income; within government social benefits the leading contributors were Medicare and social security benefits; 'The decrease in farm proprietors' income reflected the pattern of payments to farmers from the American Relief Act of 2025.' Revisions: 'Estimates have been updated for April and May reflecting updated BLS CES data. Revisions to government social benefits were led by Medicaid benefits.' Second document read for the prior month figure: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 'Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026', release BEA 26-31, embargoed until 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday, June 25, 2026, page 1 verbatim: 'Personal saving was $704.2 billion in May, and the personal saving rate-personal saving as a percentage of DPI-was 3.0 percent.' That release stated May current-dollar PCE increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent); the June release's table now shows May current-dollar PCE at 0.9 percent. Third document, for the quarterly comparison only: BEA 26-35, 'GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026', page 2, PCE price index increased 5.1 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter against 4.6 percent in the first. All three releases read in full..

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