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US Treasury par yield curve · Jul 29 · Source: U.S. Treasury
Thursday, July 30, 2026
U.S. Edition
MONEY & WORLD
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Weekly data

Jobless claims rose 9,000 last week on the adjusted measure, and the raw count fell to below where it stood a year ago

Money & World
The Editorial Team ·
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The headline says claims rose. The unadjusted table says they fell.

Both are in Thursday's release, and the second one explains the first. Seasonally adjusted initial claims came in at 197,000 for the week ending 25 July, up 9,000 on a previous week revised to 188,000. Underneath, the actual count of first-time filings under state programmes was 175,573, down 17,803 from the week before, a fall of 9.2 percent.

The seasonal factors had expected a fall of 13.3 percent. Claims did drop. They simply did not drop as far as late July usually makes them drop, and the adjustment turns that shortfall into an increase.

The comparison that needs no adjusting

There were 193,790 initial claims in the same week of 2025. This year the raw figure is 175,573, which is 18,217 lower.

The continuing side reads the same way. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.2 percent for the week ending 18 July, against 1.3 percent a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment fell 7,000 to 1,782,000, where the year-earlier figure was 1,936,000. Counting every programme, 1,872,139 weeks of benefits were claimed in the week ending 11 July, against 2,037,427 in the comparable week last year. No state was triggered on to the Extended Benefits programme.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, which exists precisely to absorb weeks like this one, fell 5,000 to 202,750.

One state, and then a long way down

The state table lags the headline by a week, so it covers the week ending 18 July. In that week the release lists five states with increases in initial claims: Louisiana at 346, Delaware at 162, Vermont at 75, West Virginia at 12, and Wyoming at one.

Wyoming's increase was a single claim.

Against that, New York fell 17,156, Michigan 4,974, California 4,242, Texas 2,354 and Pennsylvania 2,266. The largest increase in the country was smaller than the smallest listed decrease by a factor of six.

Claims count layoffs. They have never counted hiring, and a report this quiet on the layoff side says nothing at all about how long it takes someone already out of work to find the next job.

The document: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, 'Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims', news release embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Thursday, July 30, 2026. PDF retrieved directly from oui.doleta.gov by this desk on 30 July 2026, nine pages, text extracted with PyMuPDF and read; www.dol.gov returns 403 to this desk and the oui.doleta.gov path is the working route. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, page 1, verbatim: 'In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 187,000 to 188,000. The 4-week moving average was 202,750, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 207,500 to 207,750.' And: 'The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending July 18, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 18 was 1,782,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 7,000 from 1,796,000 to 1,789,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,797,500, a decrease of 6,000.' UNADJUSTED, page 2, verbatim: 'The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 175,573 in the week ending July 25, a decrease of 17,803 (or -9.2 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 25,633 (or -13.3 percent) from the previous week. There were 193,790 initial claims in the comparable week in 2025.' And: 'The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,848,068, an increase of 1,867 (or 0.1 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 8,945 (or 0.5 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.3 percent and the volume was 2,005,922.' And: 'The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending July 11 was 1,872,139, an increase of 7,485 from the previous week. There were 2,037,427 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2025.' And: 'No state was triggered "on" the Extended Benefits program during the week ending July 11.' Federal programmes, unadjusted, week ending July 18: former federal civilian employees 418 initial claims, a decrease of 52; newly discharged veterans 412, an increase of 28; continued weeks for the week ending July 11, federal employees 6,507, veterans 4,730. STATE DETAIL, page 3, verbatim: 'The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 18 were in Louisiana (+346), Delaware (+162), Vermont (+75), West Virginia (+12), and Wyoming (+1), while the largest decreases were in New York (-17,156), Michigan (-4,974), California (-4,242), Texas (-2,354), and Pennsylvania (-2,266).' Note that the release lists five states in each direction and does not state that only five states rose overall; this brief says only that five posted increases in the listed table, which is what the document supports. Highest insured unemployment rates, week ending July 11: New Jersey 2.7, Puerto Rico 2.6, Rhode Island 2.3, Massachusetts 2.2, Minnesota 2.1, Oregon 2.0, Washington 2.0, California 1.9, Connecticut 1.7, Nevada 1.7, New York 1.7, Pennsylvania 1.7. Summary table, page 4: prior-year comparable figures, initial claims SA 219,000, initial claims NSA 193,790, insured unemployment SA 1,936,000, insured unemployment NSA 2,005,922, insured unemployment rate 1.3 percent. Footnote 2: 'Most recent week used covered employment of 153,732,307 as denominator.' Release read in full. No forecast or consensus figure appears in the document and none is asserted in this brief..

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