Treasury
3-MO 3.82% -1bp 6-MO 3.98% +1bp 1-YR 4.04% unch 2-YR 4.23% +1bp 3-YR 4.30% +1bp 5-YR 4.38% +1bp 7-YR 4.52% +1bp 10-YR 4.68% +1bp 20-YR 5.22% +1bp 30-YR 5.21% +1bp 3-MO 3.82% -1bp 6-MO 3.98% +1bp 1-YR 4.04% unch 2-YR 4.23% +1bp 3-YR 4.30% +1bp 5-YR 4.38% +1bp 7-YR 4.52% +1bp 10-YR 4.68% +1bp 20-YR 5.22% +1bp 30-YR 5.21% +1bp 3-MO 3.82% -1bp 6-MO 3.98% +1bp 1-YR 4.04% unch 2-YR 4.23% +1bp 3-YR 4.30% +1bp 5-YR 4.38% +1bp 7-YR 4.52% +1bp 10-YR 4.68% +1bp 20-YR 5.22% +1bp 30-YR 5.21% +1bp 3-MO 3.82% -1bp 6-MO 3.98% +1bp 1-YR 4.04% unch 2-YR 4.23% +1bp 3-YR 4.30% +1bp 5-YR 4.38% +1bp 7-YR 4.52% +1bp 10-YR 4.68% +1bp 20-YR 5.22% +1bp 30-YR 5.21% +1bp 3-MO 3.82% -1bp 6-MO 3.98% +1bp 1-YR 4.04% unch 2-YR 4.23% +1bp 3-YR 4.30% +1bp 5-YR 4.38% +1bp 7-YR 4.52% +1bp 10-YR 4.68% +1bp 20-YR 5.22% +1bp 30-YR 5.21% +1bp 3-MO 3.82% -1bp 6-MO 3.98% +1bp 1-YR 4.04% unch 2-YR 4.23% +1bp 3-YR 4.30% +1bp 5-YR 4.38% +1bp 7-YR 4.52% +1bp 10-YR 4.68% +1bp 20-YR 5.22% +1bp 30-YR 5.21% +1bp
US Treasury par yield curve · Jul 30 · Source: U.S. Treasury
Friday, July 31, 2026
U.S. Edition
MONEY & WORLD
Subscribe
Pay

Private sector wages fell 0.4 percent in real terms over the year, and benefits are the only part of pay still beating prices

Money & World
The Editorial Team ·
Looking up at a frosted glass roof panel from below, the blurred shadows of bare tree branches spread across its heavily textured surface, with black glazing bars crossing the upper left and a plain grey soffit in the lower left corner.
Photo: 女子 正真 / Pexels

Private sector workers took a real pay cut over the past year. Wages and salaries in private industry rose 3.1 percent in cash terms in the twelve months to June, and fell 0.4 percent once inflation is taken out.

That is a change of sign, not a continuation. The same measure read plus 0.1 percent in the year to March, and plus 0.8 percent in the year to June 2025.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the figures on Friday morning under release number USDL-26-1270.

The gap between what is counted and what is spendable

Cash compensation is still rising. Private industry compensation rose 3.3 percent over the year, and on the three-month seasonally adjusted measure it rose 0.9 percent, the same as the previous quarter. Nothing in the nominal series looks like a break.

The constant dollar columns tell it differently. Civilian compensation went from plus 0.9 percent in the year to June 2025, to plus 0.1 percent in the year to March, to minus 0.1 percent now. Civilian wages and salaries went 0.9, then 0.1, then minus 0.3.

Every one of those lines crossed zero in the same quarter.

Benefits did not follow wages down

Split the package and the two halves separate.

Private industry benefits rose 3.8 percent in cash over the year, against 3.1 percent for wages, and in real terms benefits rose 0.2 percent while wages fell 0.4 percent. Health benefits, reported in current dollars only, rose 6.0 percent, up from 5.7 percent in the year to March.

So the benefits side of pay is growing at roughly twice the rate of the wage side, and health benefits at nearly double again. The release publishes no constant dollar figure for health benefits and this brief does not calculate one.

Government workers are the exception, narrowly

State and local government compensation rose 3.6 percent in cash and 0.1 percent after inflation. That makes it the only major compensation line in Table A still positive in real terms.

The exception does not extend to wages. State and local wages and salaries rose 3.4 percent in cash and fell 0.1 percent in real terms, a smaller fall than the private sector saw but a fall.

Two changes to the index itself

The release carries two notices about its own construction.

From this publication onward, relative importance estimates for selected series appear in the public database with each release, with historical estimates going back only to March 2026. And from the publication of December 2026 data, the index will adopt updated employment weights and remove workers compensation costs, which will change what the benefits series measures before the next full year of readings is complete.

The September 2026 figures are scheduled for 30 October.

The document: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index, June 2026, release USDL-26-1270, embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday 31 July 2026. The release was fetched, stripped to text and read here in full, including the narrative paragraphs for civilian, private industry and state and local government workers and the whole of Table A, Major series of the Employment Cost Index. No fetch-tool summary was relied on. The link given is the dated archive copy at /news.release/archives/eci_07312026.htm rather than the rolling /news.release/eci.nr0.htm, because the latter is overwritten each quarter; the archive copy was fetched separately and confirmed to carry the same release number USDL-26-1270, the same embargo line and the same figure of a 0.4 percent decrease. Table A reports three blocks: 3-month seasonally adjusted for March 2026 and June 2026, and 12-month not seasonally adjusted in current dollars and then in constant dollars, each for June 2025, March 2026 and June 2026. Figures read off Table A, percent change, in that column order. Civilian workers: compensation 0.9 and 0.9, then 3.6, 3.4 and 3.4 current dollar, then 0.9, 0.1 and -0.1 constant dollar; wages and salaries 0.8 and 0.9, then 3.6, 3.4 and 3.2, then 0.9, 0.1 and -0.3; benefits 1.2 and 1.0, then 3.5, 3.6 and 3.8, then 0.9, 0.3 and 0.3. Private industry: compensation 0.9 and 0.9, then 3.5, 3.4 and 3.3, then 0.8, 0.1 and -0.2; wages and salaries 0.7 and 0.9, then 3.5, 3.4 and 3.1, then 0.8, 0.1 and -0.4; benefits 1.3 and 0.9, then 3.4, 3.6 and 3.8, then 0.8, 0.3 and 0.2; health benefits current dollar only, 5.8, 5.7 and 6.0, with no seasonally adjusted or constant dollar entries published. State and local government: compensation 1.0 and 1.0, then 4.0, 3.5 and 3.6, then 1.3, 0.2 and 0.1; wages and salaries 1.0 and 0.9, then 3.9, 3.4 and 3.4. The narrative text separately states that for state and local government workers inflation-adjusted wages and salaries decreased 0.1 percent over the year, and that for private industry workers inflation-adjusted wages and salaries decreased 0.4 percent over the year, both of which match Table A. The release carries two methodology notices in boxed text: that beginning with the June 2026 publication relative importance estimates for select series are available in the public database with each publication, with historical estimates available for March 2026 and none further back; and that beginning with the publication of data for December 2026 the index will introduce updated employment weights and remove workers compensation costs. It states that the news release for September 2026 is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The release does not explain why real wages fell and this brief does not supply a reason; the arithmetic relationship between the current dollar and constant dollar columns is the release's own presentation. This is the first Employment Cost Index item this publication has run, so no prior brief is being updated..

More on Economics