Treasury
3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp
US Treasury par yield curve · Jul 31 · Source: U.S. Treasury
Saturday, August 1, 2026
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Event contracts

George Santos traded a market on whether he would attend the State of the Union, and the CFTC has barred him from every registered exchange for three years

Money & World
The Editorial Team ·
A close photograph of the end of an empty row of red upholstered seats in a darkened auditorium, the black armrest carrying a small white disc with a single seat number on it, further rows falling away into soft focus behind.
Photo: Tima Miroshnichenko / Pexels

The contract was about whether one man would turn up, and the man was trading it.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission entered an order on Friday afternoon settling charges against George Anthony Devolder Santos, who represented New York's third congressional district from January to December 2023. The Commission found that he violated the anti-manipulation provision of the Commodity Exchange Act and Regulation 180.1 between 12 February and 25 February this year. He did not admit the findings. The sanctions are disgorgement of $17,569.98, a civil penalty of $17,500 due within thirty days, a cease and desist, and a bar on trading at any registered entity for three years.

The market

KalshiEX listed a contract titled Who will attend the State of the Union? on 22 January. One of the markets inside it asked whether Santos would be there on 24 February.

He opened a Kalshi account on 11 February and funded it with $1,000, adding roughly $6,000 over the following ten days. His trading was confined to that one market. He built a Yes position of 30,874 contracts worth $6,695.94, and on the same day he took his first position he bought an airline ticket from La Guardia to Washington for the day of the speech.

Then he posted about his suit.

At 2:31 in the morning on 22 February he asked on X whether to wear a muted suit or a bedazzled one. Several hours later the Yes price rose from $0.15 to $0.70. He sold all 30,874 contracts at a profit of $3,448.43 and moved $10,146.07 out of the account to a Venmo account he had created four days earlier under the same phone number. At about 4 p.m. the airline told him his flight was cancelled. He did not say so.

The following morning he posted that the trip had become a nightmare and that no members would be able to fly into Washington. Yes fell from $0.63 to $0.28. That evening he posted a video saying that he would be in the gallery, and the price of his attendance rose from $0.40 to $0.70. Forty minutes later he began building a No position, which he took to 23,855 contracts worth $8,650.66, and at about seven o'clock the train company cancelled the reservation he had made after losing the flight. At eight, asked directly whether he was going, he answered: "I am". Both bookings were gone by then.

On the day of the speech, the order records, his Kalshi account was reached from an internet connection at his home at around noon, and the order draws no conclusion from that beyond the fact of it. At 6:05 p.m. he posted that watching the State of the Union from an airport television had not been the plan. Yes fell from $0.73 to $0.02. In the early hours of 25 February he closed the No position for a profit of $14,390.57.

Why the Commission has jurisdiction here at all

Several pages of the order are spent on a definition, and that is the part with reach beyond one man.

An event contract is a swap. The order works through Section 1a(47)(A) of the Act and concludes that the Kalshi contract qualifies on at least two of the definitional prongs, because it pays out on the occurrence of a future event carrying financial consequences and because it is commonly known to the trade as a swap. Once it is a swap, Section 6(c)(1) and Regulation 180.1 apply, and those are the provisions that make a manipulative device unlawful in connection with it. The order also records that Santos cooperated in the investigation, and that his cooperation assisted a swift resolution.

Santos consented to the order without admitting its findings, which is the position the document itself records. This publication did not seek comment, and nothing above is a finding by any court.

The document: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, In the Matter of George Anthony Devolder Santos, CFTC Docket No. 26-05, Order Instituting Proceedings Pursuant to Section 6(c) and (d) of the Commodity Exchange Act, Making Findings, and Imposing Remedial Sanctions. The ten-page order was downloaded and its text extracted and read in full here; no fetch-tool summary was relied on, and every figure, date, price and contract count below was matched against the order text. The order carries the stamp RECEIVED CFTC Office of Proceedings, Proceedings Clerk, 02:13 pm, Jul 31 2026. Identifiers matched: docket number 26-05; relevant period 12 February 2026 to 25 February 2026; violations found of Section 6(c)(1) of the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. 9(1), and Commission Regulation 180.1(a)(1) and (3), 17 C.F.R. 180.1(a)(1), (3) (2025). The order states that the respondent submitted an Offer of Settlement which the Commission determined to accept, and that he consents to entry of the order without admitting any of the findings or conclusions. Sanctions in Part VI as verified: cease and desist from violating Section 6(c)(1) and Regulation 180.1(a)(1), (3); disgorgement of profits related to his unlawful trading totalling seventeen thousand, five hundred and sixty-nine dollars and ninety-eight cents ($17,569.98); a civil monetary penalty of seventeen thousand, five hundred dollars ($17,500) payable within thirty days with post-judgment interest thereafter at the Treasury Bill rate under 28 U.S.C. 1961; and a prohibition on directly or indirectly trading on or subject to the rules of any registered entity as defined in Section 1a(40) of the Act for a period of three years after entry of the order, with all registered entities directed to refuse him trading privileges during that period. Factual findings verified against Part II.C: KalshiEX LLC, described in the order as a designated contract market whose parent Kalshi Inc. is headquartered in New York, listed the event contract titled Who will attend the State of the Union? on 22 January 2026; Santos created a Kalshi account on 11 February 2026 funded with $1,000 and made further deposits of approximately $6,000 between 14 and 22 February 2026; he accumulated 30,874 Yes contracts with a total value of $6,695.94; the 2:31 a.m. EST post of 22 February about a muted or bedazzled suit preceded a rise in the Yes price from $0.15 to $0.70, after which he sold all 30,874 contracts at a profit of $3,448.43 and withdrew $10,146.07 to a Venmo account created four days earlier on the same phone number; his flight was cancelled at approximately 4:07 p.m. EST on 22 February and he bought a train ticket at approximately 11:49 p.m. EST; the 10:29 a.m. EST post of 23 February preceded a fall in the Yes price from $0.63 to $0.28; the 5:18 p.m. EST video preceded a rise from $0.40 to $0.70; he began building a No position at approximately 5:59 p.m. EST and accumulated 23,855 No contracts with a total value of $8,650.66; the train reservation was cancelled at approximately 7:00 p.m. EST; at approximately 8:00 p.m. EST he answered a question about whether he was going with the words I am; on 24 February IP records indicate he accessed the account from an internet connection at his residence around 12:00 p.m. EST; the 6:05 p.m. EST post preceded a fall in the Yes price from $0.73 to $0.02; and he exited the No position in the early hours of 25 February for a total profit of $14,390.57. The legal discussion at Part III.A states that event contracts are a type of swap under Section 1a(47)(A) of the Act and that the Kalshi contract meets at least two of the definitional prongs. Part II.C also records that the Commission recognises the respondent's cooperation in the underlying investigation. Reference release: CFTC Release Number 9276-26, 31 July 2026..

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