The goods trade gap narrowed to $101.5bn in June, and it narrowed because imports fell further than exports did

Money & World

The Editorial Team · July 28, 2026

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What it changes

A narrower goods deficit adds arithmetically to the net exports line that feeds gross domestic product, so this print reduces the drag from trade in the second quarter. Read what produced it before treating it as strength. Exports fell. Imports fell further, which is what closed the gap, and falling imports of capital goods and consumer goods are a statement about domestic demand rather than about competitiveness. If you import, note that the year-over-year comparison still runs hot, with capital goods arriving 37.4 percent above June 2025, so a soft month sits on top of a very large annual increase. If you hold inventory, retail stock was flat on the month and everything outside motor vehicles came down 0.2 percent, which is the second consecutive soft reading in that line after May was revised lower. These are advance figures covering nearly complete documentation, and the fuller FT-900 report supersedes them.

Both sides of the ledger shrank.

The Census Bureau put the advance goods trade deficit at $101.5bn in June, down $4.4bn from $105.9bn in May, in a report issued at 8:30 on Tuesday morning. Exports of goods were $204.7bn, which is $3.8bn below May and a decline of 1.8 percent. Imports were $306.2bn, which is $8.2bn below May and a decline of 2.6 percent. The gap closed because the larger of the two numbers moved further, and a deficit that narrows on shrinking trade is a different thing from one that narrows on rising sales abroad.

The import decline was broad. Every principal end-use category came down: other goods 6.3 percent, consumer goods 3.8 percent, foods and automotive vehicles 2.5 percent each, capital goods 2.0 percent, industrial supplies 1.9 percent. On the export side industrial supplies fell 4.4 percent and foods fell 3.1 percent, while automotive vehicles rose 5.1 percent and consumer goods rose 3.2 percent.

The annual comparison points the other way and points hard. Exports are 14.8 percent above June 2025 and imports 16.6 percent above, with capital goods imports up 37.4 percent and industrial supplies exports up 31.3 percent over the same twelve months. One soft month has not reversed that.

Wholesale inventories were $945.9bn at the end of June, up 0.3 percent on the month and 4.4 percent on the year, and the Bureau revised the May change up from 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent. Retail inventories were $831.3bn and virtually unchanged, up 3.0 percent on the year, with May revised down from 0.6 percent to 0.5 percent. Inside that flat retail figure, motor vehicle and parts dealers added 0.4 percent and everything else came off 0.2 percent.

The figures are advance estimates. Census says the goods data reflect nearly complete coverage and that complete figures appear in the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report. Retail and wholesale estimates carry sampling error, and both are due for revision in September and October on the results of the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey.

The July advance report is scheduled for August 27.

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