Housing starts fell 12.4 percent in July while permits rose 5.0 percent, and the two series have now pointed in opposite directions two months running

Twelve point four percent.

That is how far privately-owned housing starts fell in July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,239,000 from a revised June figure of 1,415,000, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported on Tuesday morning. Against July last year the fall is 13.5 percent. Both of those exceed the confidence intervals the agencies publish alongside them, which is the government's own way of saying the move is real rather than noise.

Where the fall is not real

Single-family starts ran at 808,000, down 9.9 percent from a revised 897,000. That change carries a plus or minus of 10.4 percent, and Census marks it with an asterisk to say it is not statistically different from zero. Completions behave the same way. The total fell 9.1 percent to 1,212,000 against an interval of 10.2 percent, and the single-family part fell 5.8 percent against an interval of 8.7 percent. Both are asterisked.

So the significant declines in this release are the headline starts number and its year on year comparison. The parts of it a homebuyer would care about most are not.

Permits went the other way

Authorisations rose. Total building permits reached 1,443,000, up 5.0 percent from a revised 1,374,000 and 3.1 percent above July 2025. Single-family authorisations rose 2.5 percent to 894,000. Buildings of five units or more accounted for 490,000 of the total.

Permits lead starts, because a builder pulls the permit and then digs. In June the two series pointed opposite ways as well, and in the opposite arrangement: starts jumped 19 percent while permits fell. Two months of that is worth noting and not worth over-reading, because this is a volatile series that gets revised.

The revisions, since this desk used the old numbers

June starts were first published at 1,427,000 and now read 1,415,000. June permits were first published at 1,367,000 and now read 1,374,000. June single-family starts were 895,000 and now read 897,000.

The next report is due on September 17.