Collier County pays $1,328 a year for flood insurance. FEMA has priced the risk at $3,195

Every page that answers the question quotes a Florida average somewhere between $700 and $940 a year. The figure is real. It is also the wrong number to plan around, because it is not a price. It is a waypoint on a schedule that Congress wrote, and the destination is printed in a FEMA spreadsheet that almost nobody opens.

For Collier County the destination is $3,195.08.

How much is flood insurance in Florida in 2026?

The median single-family National Flood Insurance Program policy in force in Collier County on 27 July 2026 costs $1,328 a year. In Lee County it costs $1,757. Both figures are computed here from FEMA's own policy file rather than taken from a survey, and both include the federal policy fee, the reserve fund assessment and the HFIAA surcharge.

Those are the middles of very wide distributions. In Collier, 22.0 percent of single-family policies still cost less than $1,000 a year and 6.7 percent cost $5,000 or more. In Lee the same shares are 13.8 percent and 8.0 percent. The tenth percentile Collier policy costs $797. The ninety-fifth costs $6,028.

The figures come from the FimaNfipPolicies dataset published through the OpenFEMA API, refreshed on 21 July 2026. We selected every policy record with a countyCode of 12021 or 12071 that was effective on or before 27 July 2026 and terminating after it, then narrowed to owner-occupied and single-unit residential occupancy codes with a policy count of one, which is the same universe FEMA uses in its own published exhibits. That left 35,999 Collier policies and 59,155 Lee policies. The cost field is FEMA's policyCost, defined in the data dictionary as the calculated premium plus the reserve fund assessment plus the federal policy fee plus the HFIAA surcharge.

Why is the number in the search results lower than the bill?

Because most published averages describe what policyholders currently pay, and most Florida policyholders are still paying less than the rate FEMA has calculated for their building. The difference is a legislated subsidy that shrinks each year. FEMA calls the path between the two a glide path, and it publishes both ends of it.

FEMA's cost exhibits for single-family homes carry two separate columns, and the distinction between them is the entire story. The current cost of insurance is what people pay. The risk-based cost of insurance is what they would pay at the full actuarial rate. Nationally the medians are $786 and $1,289.76. For Florida they are $776 and $1,362.92. FEMA states on the same page that 38 percent of single-family policyholders are already at their full rate, which means the other 62 percent are climbing toward it.

The county table is where the state average stops being useful. Collier's median current cost of $853 sits against a median risk-based cost of $3,195.08, a ratio of 3.75. That is the widest gap of any Florida county with more than 5,000 policies, wider than Monroe County and the Keys. Lee is next among the large counties at 3.48. Statewide the ratio is 1.76.

All 67 counties are in the CSV. One caveat governs the whole table: FEMA's exhibit is built on policies in force at 31 August 2023 and the page carries a last-updated date of 23 October 2025. The current-cost column is therefore three years stale. The risk-based column is an estimate under the rates implemented on 1 October 2021, and FEMA says those estimates are refreshed periodically as risk changes.

Is the glide path actually moving?

Yes, and close to the legal maximum. Collier's median single-family cost went from $853 on 31 August 2023 to $1,328 on 27 July 2026, a rise of 55.7 percent over 35 months, or 16.5 percent compounded annually. Lee went from $1,090 to $1,757 over the same window, which is 61.2 percent, or 17.9 percent a year. The statutory ceiling is 18.

This is the part of the analysis worth checking rather than trusting, so here is the check. We ran the identical query against the identical file for policies in force on 31 August 2023, the date of FEMA's exhibit, and computed a Collier median of $853 and a Lee median of $1,090. FEMA's published figures are $853 and $1,089. The method reproduces the agency's own numbers to within a dollar, which is why the 2026 figures can be read as the same measurement taken later rather than a different measurement entirely.

Something else moved in those 35 months. The number of single-family policies in force fell from 47,034 to 35,999 in Collier and from 74,819 to 59,155 in Lee, drops of 23.5 and 20.9 percent. Prices up by three fifths, cover down by a fifth. The policy file records what was bought, not why, and no document here explains the decision that produced those two lines.

Section 4015(e)(1) of Title 42 is the ceiling: the chargeable risk premium rate "may not be increased by more than 18 percent each year," with named exceptions. Paragraph (3) adds a second constraint, capping the average increase across a single risk classification at 15 percent in any twelve-month period. Neither cap governs the fees, which is one reason a policy can move by more than the headline percentage in a year when the surcharge or the reserve fund assessment changes.

Taking FEMA's risk-based figure as fixed, Collier's median policy has 2.41 times further to travel and Lee's has 2.16 times, which is roughly five years and four and a half years respectively at 18 percent. The word "roughly" is load-bearing. The risk-based estimate is itself revised, and the counties in this table absorbed a great deal of new claims experience after 2022.

Who is on the 25 percent escalator instead of 18?

Second homes, rentals, business property, severe repetitive loss property, and buildings substantially damaged or improved by more than half their market value since 6 July 2012. Section 4015(e)(4) directs that rates on these categories "shall be increased by 25 percent each year" until they reach the class average, and section 4014(a)(2) lists them.

The list is worth reading against a Southwest Florida ownership pattern. It is not a penalty schedule aimed at the coast; it is a list Congress wrote in 2012, and it happens to describe a large share of what stands between Bonita Beach and Marco Island. In Collier, 8,499 of the 35,999 single-family policies, or 23.6 percent, are on buildings the policyholder has not certified as a primary residence. In Lee the figure is 12,631, or 21.4 percent.

Two of the five categories turn on flood history rather than use. A property whose cumulative NFIP payments have equalled or exceeded its fair market value is on the 25 percent track. So is one that took substantial damage exceeding half its market value at any point since July 2012, which in this region means the great majority of buildings that were gutted after September 2022 and rebuilt.

What does the price look like inside the county?

It varies more within each county than between them. The ZIP-code table below is our own computation from the live policy file, and the full version covering every ZIP with at least 100 single-family policies is downloadable.

Note what the spread is not explained by. Flood zone accounts for less of it than the old rating system would suggest: in Collier the median A and AE zone policy costs $1,518 and the median X zone policy costs $1,233, a difference of less than $300. The rating engine that replaced zone-and-elevation pricing weighs distance to water, first floor height, foundation type and replacement cost value at the individual building, which is why two houses on the same map panel can differ by a factor of five.

The V and VE zones remain a category of their own. There are only 81 such single-family policies in Collier and 519 in Lee, and their medians are $5,015 and $4,492.

Does the NFIP even cover the house?

Not most of it, in this market. Section 4013(b)(2) of Title 42 caps residential building coverage at $250,000 and paragraph (3) caps contents at $100,000. Those limits have not moved in decades, and 88.4 percent of Collier single-family policies and 84.9 percent of Lee's are written at the building cap.

The median replacement cost value recorded on Collier policies is $295,000, so the median policyholder is already carrying the shortfall. Contents cover is more striking: 20.4 percent of Collier policies and 27.4 percent of Lee's carry no contents coverage at all, and where it exists it is written at actual cash value rather than replacement cost.

Why is the calculated risk so high in these two counties?

Because the claims are documented. Flood losses dated in the fortnight around 28 September 2022, when Hurricane Ian made landfall on Cayo Costa, produced 28,578 NFIP claims in Lee County and 7,804 in Collier. Payments on those claims, counting building, contents and increased cost of compliance, came to $3.39bn in Lee and $922m in Collier, computed from the FimaNfipClaims dataset. Two counties, one storm, $4.31bn.

FEMA's exhibit records that 100.0 percent of Collier's single-family policies and 99.9 percent of Lee's carry storm surge exposure. For coastal erosion the shares are 13.6 and 5.8 percent.

What reduces the number on the bill?

The one discount that operates at community level rather than building level is the Community Rating System, and Southwest Florida does well on it. FEMA's eligible communities list effective 1 April 2026 puts Collier County, Naples, Marco Island, Lee County, Cape Coral, Bonita Springs and Sanibel all at Class 5, which carries a 25 percent premium discount inside the special flood hazard area. Fort Myers and Estero are Class 6, at 20 percent. Everglades City is Class 9, at 5 percent.

Fort Myers Beach entered the programme this year. Its original and current effective dates in FEMA's file are both 1 April 2026, at Class 5, which is the first CRS discount the town has ever carried and arrives in the ZIP with the highest median premium in either county.

At building level the rating engine responds to first floor elevation, foundation type and flood openings, which is what an elevation certificate documents. That is a description of how the rating works and not a recommendation about what to buy; the arithmetic of any particular building belongs to the person who owns it and the agent who writes it.

The two dates in front of a Florida buyer

Federal authority for the programme itself expires this autumn. Section 4026 of Title 42, as amended this year by Public Law 119-75, reads in full: "No new contract for flood insurance under this chapter shall be entered into after September 30, 2026." The section bars new contracts; it does not by its terms void policies already written. Congress has amended that date more than twenty times since 2008, most of them short extensions passed close to the deadline.

The state deadline is firmer. Florida Statutes section 627.351(6)(aa) requires Citizens Property Insurance personal lines residential policyholders to secure and maintain flood cover on a schedule by replacement cost: $600,000 and above from 1 January 2024, $500,000 from 2025, $400,000 from 2026, and every remaining personal lines residential policy from 1 January 2027. Properties inside a special flood hazard area have been subject to the requirement since 2023. Policies without wind coverage and condominium unit owner forms are excluded.

How this was computed

The county and state figures with the words "current" and "risk-based" attached come from FEMA's published Exhibits 2, 3 and 4, downloaded as an Excel file from the agency's own page and read directly. Everything dated 27 July 2026 was computed by us from the OpenFEMA policy file using the filters described above. Both CSVs linked in this piece contain the compiled tables; the query is reproducible against a public API with no key.

The single largest limitation is the mismatch of vintage. FEMA's risk-based column was estimated on 2021 rates against a 2023 book of business, and it is compared here against premiums measured in July 2026. That comparison is fair for the direction of travel and approximate for the distance remaining.

Frequently asked questions

What is the average cost of flood insurance in Florida? FEMA's published median current cost for a single-family Florida policy is $776 a year, against a median full-risk cost of $1,362.92. County medians range from $572 in Highlands to $1,307 in Charlotte, and the full-risk figures range far wider.

Why did my flood insurance go up 18 percent? Because 42 U.S.C. 4015(e)(1) permits an increase of up to 18 percent a year on the chargeable premium rate until a policy reaches its full risk rate, and most Florida policies have not reached it. Second homes, rentals and business property are on a 25 percent schedule under paragraph (4).

Is flood insurance required in Florida? Federal law requires it for a federally backed mortgage on a building inside a special flood hazard area. Separately, Florida law requires it as a condition of Citizens Property Insurance coverage, with the last group of policyholders brought in on 1 January 2027.

How much flood coverage can the NFIP write? $250,000 on the building and $100,000 on contents for a residential property, set by 42 U.S.C. 4013(b). Coverage above those limits is a private market product.

Does the flood zone determine the premium? Not primarily, under the pricing approach FEMA implemented in 2021. In Collier the median A and AE zone policy costs $1,518 a year and the median X zone policy costs $1,233. Distance to water, first floor height, foundation type and replacement cost do more work than the zone label.