American house prices rose 1.1 percent in the year to May, inflation ran 4.2 percent, and the gap has now been negative for a full year
One point one percent.
That is what the typical American house gained over the twelve months to May, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, released Tuesday morning. It is an acceleration, from 0.9 percent the month before. It is also, by the release's own account, the twelfth consecutive month in which house prices have fallen in real terms, because inflation in May ran at 4.2 percent and a 1.1 percent gain does not cover that.
The broader composites did better than the national figure and still did not clear the bar. The 10-City Composite rose 2.4 percent over the year, up from 1.8 percent in April. The 20-City rose 1.6 percent, up from 1.2 percent. Every one of those numbers is below the inflation rate S&P cites.
Rebecca Kaufman, an associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, put the nominal comparison alongside last year's: in May 2025 the National Index was up 2.4 percent year over year, so the market is "noticeably weaker than a year ago" on that measure too. Kaufman also said inflation peaked at 4.2 percent in May, its highest reading in over three years.
The averages hide the actual market. Chicago led the 20 cities for a third consecutive month at 6.93 percent, with New York at 4.23 percent and Cleveland at 3.09 percent. At the other end, Las Vegas fell 1.86 percent, Seattle 1.83 percent, Denver 1.75 percent and Tampa 1.63 percent. That is a spread of nearly 9 percentage points between the strongest metro and the weakest in the same month, and it separates the Northeast and Midwest from the West and the Sunbelt rather than dividing the country by anything a national headline can carry.
Kaufman attributes the pattern to shifting post-pandemic housing dynamics, including a return-to-office movement she says appears to be supporting traditional urban markets. That is a stated view, offered as one possible reading, and it is the only explanation in the release.
Month to month, the numbers depend on which version you read. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the National Index rose 0.64 percent from April, the 10-City rose 0.94 percent and the 20-City rose 0.88 percent, which is the seasonal strength of the spring buying season doing most of the work. Strip the seasonality out and the National Index fell 0.05 percent. The release states the seasonally adjusted 20-City change twice and rounds it differently each time, as 0.2 percent in the analysis section and 0.1 percent in the month-over-month section; Table 3 puts it at 0.15 percent, which is what both roundings come from.
Detroit is missing. Cotality reported continuing transaction delays at the recording office in Wayne County, the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, and those delays hit the May data, so no valid May index was published for the city. There was enough data for a valid April update, which is in Tables 2 and 3, and S&P says it will publish the missing months when the transactions arrive.
For the level rather than the rate: the National Index stands at 335.10 against a base of 100 in January 2000, which is 8.8 percent above the June 2022 peak and 14.5 percent above the January 2023 trough.
