The US leading index fell 0.2 percent in June, giving back part of a spring rebound

The US leading index turned down again. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States fell 0.2 percent in June to 99.1, on a 2016 base of 100, after rising 0.1 percent in May, the board said on July 20. The drop partly reversed gains booked in April and May.

The decline was narrow in its causes. The interest rate spread, the gap between long and short term yields, made the largest positive contribution, and the other financial components added marginally. Those were not enough to offset the two drags: consumer expectations stayed weak, and building permits fell across most of their categories. "Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

Set against the recent past, the reading is milder than the headline suggests. The leading index is down 0.3 percent over the first half of 2026, a much smaller decline than the 1.1 percent contraction across the second half of 2025. The six and twelve month growth rates were still negative, but the board described them as stable rather than deteriorating.

The other two composites pointed up. The Coincident Economic Index, which tracks where the economy is now, rose 0.2 percent in June to 114.6, its second straight monthly gain, and all four of its components, payroll employment, personal income less transfers, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, made positive contributions. The Lagging Economic Index held at 120.5. On the strength of that current activity, the board raised its forecast for 2026 growth to 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent.