Tropics update: 3 Atlantic areas of interest, none near Florida

The National Hurricane Center is carrying three areas of interest in the Atlantic a month before the climatological peak of the season, and not one of them is anywhere near Southwest Florida, with the highest seven day formation chance sitting at 60 percent thousands of miles away off west Africa

Money & World

The Editorial Team · August 10, 2026

A wide stretch of calm grey water under a broken sky, with scattered cumulus cloud lit from behind and thin cirrus streaking the blue at upper left. Sunlight glints in a bright path across the middle of the water. A low dark strip of distant shoreline runs along the horizon at the far left. No people, boats, buildings, signage or text are in view.

Photo: Raul Ling / Pexels

What it changes

If you live in Collier or Lee County, the short version this morning is that there is nothing in the Atlantic to plan around, and the reason to read on is that this is the month when that stops being a safe assumption. The National Hurricane Center's 2 a.m. outlook carries three areas of interest and none of them is a threat to Southwest Florida. Two of the three are given a 10 percent chance of developing over the next seven days, which is the hurricane center's way of saying it is watching something that will probably come to nothing. The third is the one worth knowing about, and it is also the furthest away: an area of low pressure south of the Cabo Verde Islands, off the coast of west Africa, which the outlook gives 20 percent over two days and 60 percent over seven. Sixty percent is a real number, and the outlook says plainly that a tropical depression could form in the latter half of this week. What it is not is a forecast that anything reaches Florida. A disturbance near Cabo Verde is at the far side of the ocean, and the distance between formation and any American coastline is measured in a week or more of travel during which it may strengthen, fall apart, or turn. Gulf Coast News meteorologist Lauren Hope, whose piece is what put this on the desk, reads the steering pattern as high pressure pushing the system west across the basin, with a weakness in that ridge that could let it curve north and away from the United States next week. That is her forecast reasoning rather than a hurricane center statement, and it is offered here as the shape of a possibility, not a track. Nobody can honestly tell you today where something that does not yet exist will go. The nearest area to Florida is also the least likely: disorganised storms northwest of Bermuda, drifting east, away from the United States, with a 10 percent chance and a window that the outlook says closes on Wednesday when it reaches cooler water. The third sits midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and also carries 10 percent, with the outlook noting conditions turn against it later in the week. Behind all of it, the hurricane center's front page states there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time. One correction worth carrying, because it is the kind of detail people repeat: the Gulf Coast News piece gives the next name on the list as Cristobal. The hurricane center's own 2026 archive lists two Atlantic storms so far this season, Arthur and Bertha, which puts Chantal next, and this site's reporting on NOAA's August outlook update recorded the same two storms. The names matter less than the count, and the count is the useful part. Two named storms and no hurricanes by the tenth of August is a quiet season so far, and it is consistent with what both NOAA and Colorado State published in the past week when each of them cut its numbers, NOAA to 7 to 13 named storms and Colorado State to a 7 percent chance of a peninsula Florida hurricane landfall, with a strengthening El Nino as the reason. The timing is the whole point. September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic season, which is one month from today, and a quiet July and early August has never been a guarantee about September. The practical read for a Southwest Florida household is that this is a week with nothing to react to and therefore a good week to do the unglamorous part: know your evacuation zone, check that the shutters and the panels are where you think they are, and top up supplies at ordinary prices rather than at the prices that appear when a cone is on television. There is no watch, no warning and no advisory anywhere in Florida connected to any of these three areas. The only weather products active in the state this morning are heat advisories, which is a different story and one this desk has covered separately.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas of interest in the Atlantic basin, according to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2 a.m. Eastern on Monday, August 10 by forecaster Hagen. None of the three is a threat to Southwest Florida, and the hurricane center states that there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

The area with the highest chance of developing is the furthest from Florida. An area of low pressure south of the Cabo Verde Islands, off the west coast of Africa, is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms, and a tropical wave now over west Africa is expected to merge with it. The outlook puts formation at 20 percent over the next 48 hours and 60 percent over seven days, and says environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive by midweek, with a tropical depression possible during the latter half of the week.

The second area is a broad zone of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave roughly midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It carries a 10 percent chance over both 48 hours and seven days, with the outlook noting that conditions become less favourable later in the week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

The third and closest to the United States is a trough of low pressure northwest of Bermuda. It is moving eastward, away from the country, and reaches cooler waters that end its chances after Wednesday. It carries 10 percent over both periods.

Gulf Coast News, the Fort Myers newsroom that reported the three areas on Monday morning, frames the second Atlantic disturbance as the one to watch. Meteorologist Lauren Hope writes that high pressure will steer it west across the basin, and that if it follows a weakness in that ridge it could curve north and away from the United States next week. That is the newsroom's forecast reasoning rather than a hurricane center statement, and no track for a system that has not formed can be treated as settled.

Two named storms have formed in the Atlantic this season, Arthur and Bertha, and neither became a hurricane. The hurricane center's 2026 advisory archive lists those two and no others, which places Chantal next on the name list. The Gulf Coast News piece gives the next name as Cristobal.

The quiet start is consistent with the forecasts both major outlooks published in the past week. NOAA cut its August update to 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, every bound at or below where it stood in May. Colorado State's August update put the probability of a hurricane landfall on peninsula Florida at 7 percent. Both attributed the reduction to a strengthening El Nino.

September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, one month from Monday.

No watch, warning or advisory anywhere in Florida is connected to any of the three areas. The only weather products active in the state on Monday morning are heat advisories.

The National Hurricane Center is carrying three areas of interest in the Atlantic a month before the climatological peak of the season, and not one of them is anywhere near Southwest Florida, with the highest seven day formation chance sitting at 60 percent thousands of miles away off west Africa

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