The eastern Atlantic system this desk has tracked all week as Invest 96L was named Tropical Storm Dolly at 11 o'clock this morning, and the National Hurricane Center's very first advisory on it already forecasts the storm to fall apart into a tropical wave before it ever reaches the Leeward Islands

The National Hurricane Center named Tropical Storm Dolly at 11 o'clock this morning, and in the same advisory forecast it to fall apart before it reaches land.

Advisory number 1, forecaster Blake, puts the storm at latitude 13.6 north, longitude 38.7 west, about 1,555 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph. It is moving west at 24 mph and the minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars.

This is the system this desk has covered since 24 August as Invest 96L.

The first advisory is also a weakening forecast

The advisory says little change in strength is forecast over the next 48 hours, and then says Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands.

The forecast positions table is blunter than the prose. It carries Dolly as post-tropical from Sunday morning and marks it dissipated by Monday afternoon.

The discussion gives the reason. Southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to increase from tomorrow, and the storm is also fighting dry air aloft and its own forward speed. Some slight intensification is possible before that, and no more.

Nothing is in force, here or anywhere

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The advisory's only instruction to anyone on land is that interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the storm's progress.

Florida does not appear in the product.

The National Weather Service active alerts feed for the state returned zero alerts when this desk read it on this run, and Dolly is the only active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Power is normal in both counties, at 59 customers out of 536,201 in Lee and 633 out of 283,417 in Collier.

The forecast reversed overnight, and that is worth saying

Yesterday morning the center cut this system from 70 percent to 60 percent in both formation windows and added that conditions were forecast to become less favourable by the weekend.

The 8 o'clock outlook this morning put it at 90 percent in both windows and said advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical storm later in the day. Three hours later they were.

The weakening call has not been dropped. It has been moved forward, from the weekend to tomorrow.

The hazard is rain, and it is not here

The advisory warns that heavy rain could begin to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, and the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday, and that it may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

The key message in the discussion states that even though Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone when it passes near the Leeward Islands, that rain remains the concern.

On the name

The forecast discussion carries a paragraph that tropical cyclone discussions almost never carry.

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm, it says, is purely coincidental. It goes on to explain that Atlantic names come from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee, and that the name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

The product does not say what the coincidence refers to, and this desk will not guess.

The next complete advisory is due at 5 o'clock this afternoon.