China's private factory survey put July at 50.9 and the official one put it at 49.2, and the two were measuring the same month
Two surveys of Chinese factories in July disagree about whether they grew.
The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, came in at 50.9 for July, down from 51.7 in June. Anything above 50 signals improvement against the previous month, so on this measure operating conditions in Chinese manufacturing improved for an eighth month running. The release calls the current upturn the joint longest in five years, matching the stretch from November 2023 to June 2024. It was published at 09:45 Beijing time on Monday.
The National Bureau of Statistics put the same month at 49.2.
What eased and what did not
Growth slowed nearly everywhere in the private survey without stopping. Output rose for an eighth month at the weakest rate in four, following what the release calls the strongest quarter of increases since the second quarter of 2024. New orders rose for a fourteenth month, the longest sequence since 2018, and the pace eased. New export business rose for the first time in three months.
Employment was the exception. Manufacturers added staff for a second month and the release puts the rate of job creation at the strongest since August 2023.
Prices went the other way from output. Input cost inflation slowed for a third month to a six month low, and factory gate prices were broadly unchanged after six consecutive monthly increases, the longest such run since 2021. Firms were able to hold their charges because their own costs were rising more slowly.
The line under the headline
Chinese manufacturers bought fewer inputs in July for the first time since November 2025.
They did so while order books were still growing, which the release ties to what has been accumulating in their yards. Stocks of purchases rose for an eighth month running, a sequence the document says is the longest since 2006 and 2007. Inventories of finished goods fell slightly. Backlogs of work rose for a sixth month, at the slowest rate over that period, and suppliers' delivery times lengthened for a fifth month by a margin the release describes as only marginal.
Yao Yu, founder at RatingDog, is quoted in the release saying the reduction in purchasing and the accumulation of input stocks "warrant attention", and that the sector is expected to stay in expansionary territory in the near term at a pace that may become more moderate.
The two panels
The document states its own method. The index is compiled from questionnaires sent to a panel of around 650 manufacturers, stratified by sector and workforce size, with data for this release collected between 9 and 23 July. The headline figure is a weighted average of five components: new orders at 30 percent, output at 25 percent, employment at 20 percent, suppliers' delivery times at 15 percent and stocks of purchases at 10 percent, with delivery times inverted so the series moves the same way as the others. All five contributed positively for a second month.
The official survey this site reported on 31 July draws on 3,200 manufacturers and is run by the statistics bureau with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Its new orders index was 48.5 and its employment index 49.0.
