Treasury
3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp 3-MO 3.83% +1bp 6-MO 3.98% unch 1-YR 4.08% +4bp 2-YR 4.28% +5bp 3-YR 4.34% +4bp 5-YR 4.45% +7bp 7-YR 4.59% +7bp 10-YR 4.75% +7bp 20-YR 5.28% +6bp 30-YR 5.27% +6bp
US Treasury par yield curve · Jul 31 · Source: U.S. Treasury
Sunday, August 2, 2026
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OPEC+

Seven OPEC+ countries have set the same 188,000 barrels a day for a fourth month running, and the paragraph about a cautious approach and the option to pause has come out of the release

Money & World
The Editorial Team ·
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Photo: Skyler Ewing / Pexels

One hundred and eighty-eight thousand barrels a day. That is the increment seven OPEC+ countries set for September, and it is the one they set for August, for July and for June.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman met by videoconference on 2 August. The decision itself is a repeat. What is different is what the release no longer says.

The July text stated that the April 2023 adjustments "may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner". It went on to record that the countries "reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments announced in November 2023". Neither sentence is in Sunday's release. Both appear in the releases of 5 April, 3 May, 7 June and 5 July, which is every monthly release this desk could retrieve back to the spring.

A second sentence narrowed. In July the seven said they would "hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation". In August they will "continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions". Conformity and compensation are out of that sentence, though compensation survives elsewhere in the document: the seven again confirmed an intention to "fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024".

None of this is explained. The release gives no reason for any of the three changes, and OPEC issued no statement addressing them.

The country figures are published as a picture rather than as text. Read off it, September required production runs Saudi Arabia 10,478 thousand barrels a day, Russia 9,949, Iraq 4,431, Kuwait 2,676, Kazakhstan 1,628, Algeria 1,007 and Oman 841. The increments are 62, 62, 26, 16, 10, 6 and 5, and each one reconciles exactly against the same country's August figure. Those seven numbers sum to 187 against a stated total of 188, in the September table and in the August table alike.

The group was eight until the spring. The 5 April release named the United Arab Emirates among the countries making voluntary adjustments, at an increment of 206 thousand barrels a day for May. The 3 May release did not name it, and no release since has.

The next meeting is 6 September.

The document: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 'Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman adjust production and reaffirm commitment to market stability', press release dated 2 August 2026. The release was downloaded and its text extracted and read in full here; no fetch-tool summary was relied on. HTTP 200, 210,979 bytes. The accompanying per country table is not HTML: the page contains zero table elements and the figures are served as a single PNG at /assets/imagedb/pic/1785668773.png, 882 by 673 pixels, which was downloaded (HTTP 200, 15,943 bytes) and read as an image, then cropped and upscaled three times to confirm every digit in the increments column. Table heading as printed: 'September 2026 Required Production Table (kbd)'. Rows as printed, country then production increment then required production: Algeria 6 and 1,007; Iraq 26 and 4,431; Kuwait 16 and 2,676; Saudi Arabia 62 and 10,478; Kazakhstan 10 and 1,628; Oman 5 and 841; Russia 62 and 9,949; Total 188. The seven printed increments sum to 187. Comparison against the preceding month was made against the primary document and not against any secondary account: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, same release title, dated 5 July 2026, at https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/609-5-july-2026.html (HTTP 200, 213,143 bytes), whose table image at /assets/imagedb/pic/1783246215.png (HTTP 200, 11,947 bytes) is headed 'August 2026 Required Production Table (kbd)' and prints Algeria 6 and 1,001; Iraq 26 and 4,405; Kuwait 16 and 2,660; Saudi Arabia 62 and 10,416; Kazakhstan 10 and 1,618; Oman 5 and 836; Russia 62 and 9,887; Total 188. Every September required-production figure less its August counterpart equals that country's printed increment, in all seven cases. Both texts were reduced to sentences and compared mechanically. Present in the 5 July release and absent from the 2 August release: 'The additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023 may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.' and 'The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments announced in November 2023.' Also changed: 5 July reads 'The seven OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation.' against 2 August's 'The seven OPEC+ countries will continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions.' Retained in both: the commitment to 'fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024'. The same two absent sentences were confirmed present in the releases of 3 May 2026 (https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/602-3-may-2026.html, 188 thousand barrels a day, implemented June 2026), 7 June 2026 (https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/604-7-june-2026.html, 188 thousand barrels a day, implemented July 2026) and 5 April 2026 (https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/597-5-april-2026.html, 206 thousand barrels a day, implemented May 2026). Membership was read off the releases themselves: the 5 April 2026 release names 'Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman'; the 3 May 2026 release and every release since name the same list without the United Arab Emirates. Next meeting date as stated in the 2 August release: 6 September 2026..

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