Tropics: Cabo Verde system at 70%, depression likely this week

The National Hurricane Center has raised the Cabo Verde disturbance from 60 percent to 70 percent over seven days in its 8 p.m. outlook and hardened its language from a depression that could form to one that will likely form, while still placing nothing in the Atlantic within reach of Southwest Florida

Money & World

The Editorial Team · August 11, 2026

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What it changes

Nothing about tonight changes what a Collier or Lee County household should do tomorrow, and that is worth saying first, because the number attached to this story went up and numbers going up is how weeks of unnecessary worry start. The National Hurricane Center's 8 p.m. outlook raised the disturbance off west Africa from a 60 percent chance of developing over seven days to 70 percent, and moved its 48 hour odds from 20 percent to 30 percent. More telling than either number is the wording. This morning's product said a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week. Tonight's says one will likely form. That is the hurricane center stating, in its own careful register, that it now expects this to become a named system rather than merely allowing that it might. What that is not is a forecast about Florida. The system sits about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, which is the far side of the Atlantic Ocean, and it is moving westward to west northwestward across open water. Between where it is tonight and any American coastline lie well over a week of travel and every opportunity to strengthen, fall apart, or turn out to sea. A depression forming near Cabo Verde in the second week of August is ordinary. It is what that stretch of ocean does at this time of year. The honest state of knowledge tonight is that something will probably form, that nobody can tell you where it goes, and that anyone offering you a track for a system that does not yet exist is guessing. The other two areas the outlook carries are both at 10 percent and both are going the wrong way to matter here. One is a tropical wave about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands, moving quickly west, and the outlook says conditions turn against it later this week as it nears the Lesser Antilles. The other is a trough a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, moving quickly east, away from the United States, and the outlook gives it until Thursday before cooler water ends its chances entirely. Behind all three, the hurricane center's own live product for active systems lists zero tropical cyclones anywhere in the Atlantic tonight, and no watch, warning or advisory is in force for Collier or Lee County. One correction to carry, because it has now appeared twice in one day from two different newsrooms: WINK News gives Cristobal as the next name on the list, and Gulf Coast News gave the same name this morning. The hurricane center's 2026 archive lists two Atlantic storms this season, Arthur and Bertha. That makes Chantal next. The name is trivia; the count is not. Two named storms and no hurricanes by the tenth of August is a quiet season so far, consistent with NOAA cutting its August update to 7 to 13 named storms and Colorado State putting a peninsula Florida hurricane landfall at 7 percent, both citing a strengthening El Nino. None of which is a promise about September. The climatological peak of the season is September 10, one month from today, and a quiet first half has never once guaranteed the second. The practical read is the same as it was this morning, and the fact that it has not changed is the point: this is still a week with nothing to react to, which makes it a good week to confirm your evacuation zone, find the shutters before you need them, and buy water at August prices rather than at cone-on-television prices. Watch this one because it is now likely to have a name by the weekend, not because it is coming here. There is no evidence tonight that it is.

The National Hurricane Center has raised the odds on the Atlantic's most likely area of development, and firmed up the language it uses about it, in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8 p.m. Eastern on Monday, August 10 by forecaster Blake.

An area of low pressure about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, off the west coast of Africa, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The outlook now puts formation at 30 percent over 48 hours and 70 percent over seven days, and states that a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

That is a change on both counts from the 2 a.m. outlook the same day, which gave the system 20 percent over 48 hours and 60 percent over seven days and said only that a tropical depression could form in the latter half of the week. The seven day figure has also crossed from the hurricane center's medium band into its high band.

The system remains on the far side of the Atlantic, and the outlook makes no statement about where it goes after formation.

The second area is a tropical wave about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands, producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms and moving quickly westward. Some gradual development is possible through midweek, but the outlook says conditions become less favourable later this week as it nears the Lesser Antilles. It carries 10 percent over both 48 hours and seven days.

The third is a trough of low pressure a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, moving quickly eastward, away from the United States. The outlook says it reaches cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation by Thursday. It also carries 10 percent over both periods.

There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. The hurricane center's live product for active systems returned none anywhere in the basin on Monday evening.

No watch, warning or advisory is in force for Collier or Lee County in connection with any of the three areas.

WINK News, which reported the increase on Monday evening, states that there is currently no threat to Florida and that there is plenty of time to watch how the system evolves. The newsroom describes a potential approach toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend followed by a turn northward that would steer the system away from the United States. That is the newsroom's forecast reasoning rather than a hurricane center statement, and no track for a system that has not formed can be treated as settled.

Two named storms have formed in the Atlantic this season, Arthur and Bertha, and neither became a hurricane. The hurricane center's 2026 advisory archive lists those two and no others, which places Chantal next on the name list. The WINK News piece gives the next name as Cristobal, as did a Gulf Coast News piece on Monday morning.

September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, one month from Monday.