Invest 96L at 70%, tropical depression likely in a day or two

The National Hurricane Center now carries the eastern Atlantic disturbance at 70 percent in both of its windows and says a tropical depression is likely to form there within a day or two, while the Bermuda system has fallen to near zero and is no longer expected to develop at all

Money & World

The Editorial Team · August 26, 2026

A dark expanse of open ocean at night beneath a heavy cloud deck, with a bright band of distant thunderstorm light and a faint lightning strike glowing along the horizon. No land, vessel, person, structure, signage or marking of any kind appears anywhere in the frame. A generic illustration of the kind of thunderstorm activity a tropical disturbance produces over open water, not a photograph of this event.

Stock photo

Stock photo. Not the actual scene. Photo: Francesco Ungaro / Pexels

What it changes

Nothing is forecast toward Southwest Florida this morning. The National Weather Service active alert list for the whole state of Florida holds exactly one item, a minor flood advisory for St. Johns County up near Jacksonville, roughly three hundred miles from here and connected to neither Atlantic system. No watch, warning or advisory of any kind is in force in Collier or Lee. What changed overnight is still worth knowing, and it changed in two directions. The system to keep in the corner of your eye is Invest 96L, out near the Cabo Verde islands. Its seven-day number did not move, it was 70 percent yesterday and it is 70 percent today. The figure that moved is the near one: the 48-hour chance went from 60 percent to 70 percent, so both windows now sit in the high category, and the hurricane center tightened its own wording from a depression is likely during the next few days to likely to form over the next day or two. The tracking data shows why. The system strengthened from 25 knots to 30 knots overnight and its central pressure fell a couple of millibars, so it is better organized than it was. It covered about 441 miles in twenty four hours, an average near 18 miles per hour, and the most recent six-hour stretch was its quickest. Read the rest of that paragraph alongside the number, because it cuts the other way and it hardened since yesterday: forecasters now say conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development. Yesterday that sentence was the softer could become less conducive. Both halves are the forecast. That system sits about 3,653 miles from Fort Myers. At its current pace it has the better part of a week of open ocean ahead of it, and a week of steering that nobody can resolve today. A high formation number is a statement about whether a depression forms, not about where anything goes. Gulf Coast News, which reported the overnight change, adds its own read on that question: the system will likely run into higher wind shear as it approaches the Caribbean, some models break it apart into next week, and the models that do develop it tend to favor a track north of the Caribbean that turns north into the open Atlantic. That is the outlet's forecast judgment rather than hurricane center text, and it points the same way as the geography. Any map circulating this week that claims to show a track into the Gulf is not coming from the hurricane center. The other system is finished. The Bermuda low, Invest 95L, which this desk has been carrying since Saturday, went from 40 percent yesterday to near zero in both windows today, and the outlook now states plainly that development is no longer expected. It is a trough rather than a closed low, it has climbed to about 1,752 miles from Fort Myers, and the hurricane center has stopped adding rows to its tracking file. You can stop watching that one. One thing to be ready for. Three storms have been named in the Atlantic this season, and the hurricane center tracking files confirm no fourth. The next name on the list is Dolly, so you will keep seeing that name in coverage attached to a storm that does not exist yet. If a depression forms out east in the next day or two and strengthens, that is what it will be called, and a name says nothing at all about where it goes. September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic season, fifteen days from today. The useful habit for this stretch is the dull one: know your evacuation zone, keep a few days of supplies on hand, and take your numbers from the outlook rather than from a shared graphic.

The National Hurricane Center has raised the 48-hour formation chance for the eastern Atlantic disturbance to 70 percent and now says a tropical depression is likely to form there over the next day or two, according to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, August 26 by forecaster Adams. Both of the outlook's windows on that system now sit in the high category. Neither area the outlook carries is forecast toward Southwest Florida.

The system is the area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave, centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, tagged AL96 in the outlook and designated Invest 96L on Monday. The outlook states that it is producing showers and thunderstorms displaced to the southwest of its center, that environmental conditions remain somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, and that a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The seven-day figure is unchanged from Tuesday at 70 percent. What moved is the 48-hour figure, from 60 percent to 70 percent, and the timing language, which Tuesday's product worded as likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days.

The same paragraph carries a limit that hardened overnight. The outlook states that environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, potentially ending the system's chances for development. Tuesday's product put that more softly, saying conditions could become less conducive.

Hurricane center tracking data read on Wednesday morning places 96L at 13.5 north and 26.9 west, about 248 miles from Praia in the Cabo Verde islands and about 3,653 miles from Fort Myers. The system now lies southwest of Praia rather than southeast of it, matching the change in the outlook's position wording. Its maximum sustained wind rose from 25 knots to 30 knots on the 2 a.m. record and its central pressure fell from 1010 to 1008 millibars. Across the twenty four hours to 2 a.m. it covered about 441 miles, an average of about 18 miles per hour, consistent with the 15 to 20 mph the outlook describes.

The second area is done. The trough of low pressure several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, tagged AL95 and designated Invest 95L, fell from 40 percent over both windows on Tuesday to near 0 percent over both windows on Wednesday. The outlook states that recent scatterometer wind data indicate the circulation remains elongated and broad, that environmental conditions are becoming increasingly hostile, and that development is no longer expected.

Tracking data places that system at 40.7 north and 56.3 west, about 745 miles from Bermuda and about 1,752 miles from Fort Myers. Its tracking file was last written shortly after midnight and carries no 2 a.m. record, while the file for the eastern system was updated at 6.50 a.m.

Gulf Coast News, the Fort Myers newsroom that reported the overnight change, carries the same 70 percent figures on both windows. Meteorologist Jim Dickey reports that the system is not expected to bring any impacts to the Florida Gulf Coast. The outlet adds its own forecast read, which the hurricane center outlook does not carry: that the disturbance will likely face higher wind shear as it approaches the Caribbean, that some models show it breaking apart into next week, and that the models which do develop it tend to favor a track north of the Caribbean, turning north into the open Atlantic.

Three named storms have formed in the Atlantic this season, Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal. Hurricane center tracking files carry no fourth, so the next name on the 2026 list, Dolly, remains unused.

September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, fifteen days from Wednesday.

The National Weather Service active alert list for Florida returned a single active alert statewide on Wednesday morning, a minor flood advisory for St. Johns County in the northeast of the state. No watch, warning or advisory is in force in Lee or Collier County, and neither Atlantic system is connected to any product in Florida.

The National Hurricane Center now carries the eastern Atlantic disturbance at 70 percent in both of its windows and says a tropical depression is likely to form there within a day or two, while the Bermuda system has fallen to near zero and is no longer expected to develop at all

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