Cristobal post-tropical, AL92 at 80%, no threat to Florida

Cristobal is finished and the hurricane center has issued its last advisory on it, and the Cabo Verde system this desk has been calling the one to watch is now forecast to be killed off by shear and dry air by late Friday

Money & World

The Editorial Team · August 13, 2026

A wide blue sky filling the whole frame, with small scattered white cumulus clouds across the lower half, streaks of thin high cirrus fanning across the upper right, and two faint aircraft contrails. A band of low cloud and pale haze runs along the bottom edge. No land, water, coastline, buildings, people, signage or text are in view, and this is not a photograph of any storm.

Stock photo

Stock photo. Not the actual scene. Photo: Boris Hamer / Pexels

What it changes

For a household in Collier or Lee County the operational answer is unchanged and remains nothing, but two things moved today and one of them is worth holding on to. The first is that Cristobal is over. The hurricane center declared it a post-tropical remnant low at 11 a.m. Eastern on Thursday and issued its final advisory on the system, the language in the bulletin being that Cristobal degenerates to a post-tropical remnant low and that this is the final NHC advisory. It is about 535 miles west northwest of the Azores with 30 mph winds, moving northeast at 16 mph, and it is expected to dissipate later tonight. Its hazards affecting land section reads none, as it has every day of its short life. The second is the part that matters more, because it runs against what this desk told you on Monday and again on Wednesday. The Cabo Verde system, designated AL92, was the area the hurricane center rated highest all week and the one described here as the one to watch. This morning the hurricane center still gives it an 80 percent chance of formation over both 48 hours and seven days, and still expects it to become a tropical depression in the next day or two. But it now adds the sentence that changes the meaning of that 80 percent. By late Friday the system is expected to move into a region of strong upper level winds and dry air, which should end its opportunity to develop. Read those together and the forecast is not that a storm is coming, it is that a depression will probably form and then be killed within about a day. An 80 percent formation chance is not a threat level. It is a statement about whether a closed circulation appears, and it says nothing at all about where that circulation goes or how long it survives. This is the mirror image of the lesson from Wednesday, when the 10 percent area got the name and the 70 percent area did not. A high number is not a promise, in either direction. The people who need to watch this one are in the Lesser Antilles, about a thousand miles to its west, where the hurricane center says gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday whether or not anything forms. Nothing in that reaches Florida. The remaining area, AL94, is a wave a few hundred miles south southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, at 30 percent over 48 hours and 50 percent over seven days, with a depression possible late this week or the weekend. It is at the beginning of a crossing that takes well over a week, most systems that form there never reach the United States, and anyone showing you a track for a storm that does not exist yet is guessing. No tropical watch, warning or advisory covers Collier or Lee County. The only active alerts for either county today are heat advisories. That leaves this as another week with nothing to react to, which is still the week to confirm your evacuation zone and put hands on the shutters, because the week with something to react to is a bad week to start. September 10 is the climatological peak, four weeks out.

The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Cristobal at 1500 UTC on Thursday, August 13, declaring the system a post-tropical remnant low.

Advisory Number 5, signed by forecasters Adams and Cangialosi, carries the headlines "Cristobal degenerates to a post-tropical remnant low" and "This is the final NHC advisory." The center is near latitude 39.4 north, longitude 36.8 west, about 535 miles west northwest of the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph and the minimum central pressure is 1018 millibars. It is moving northeast at 16 mph and is expected to dissipate later tonight.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The advisory's section for hazards affecting land reads none. Further information on the remnant low moves to the National Weather Service High Seas Forecasts.

That closes out the third named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season. This site reported on Wednesday, on the hurricane center's own numbered forecast points, that Cristobal would dissipate Thursday. It has.

Two areas of interest remain, both carried in the 8 a.m. Eastern Tropical Weather Outlook issued Thursday by forecasters Cangialosi and Adams.

The first is AL92, in the central tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles whose showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization. The outlook says it will likely become a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward. It gives an 80 percent chance of formation over 48 hours and 80 percent over seven days.

The outlook then states what happens after that. By late Friday, the system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, which should end its opportunity to develop. The outlook advises interests in the Lesser Antilles to monitor its progress, because gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible there Friday night and Saturday regardless of whether anything forms.

AL92 is the Cabo Verde system this site has carried since Monday as the highest-rated area in the basin, and described on Wednesday as the one to watch. Its designator has not changed. On Wednesday it sat about 900 miles west southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west it is now roughly 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

The second area is AL94, in the eastern tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave a few hundred miles south southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a depression could form late this week or this weekend as it moves west or west northwestward. It carries a 30 percent chance over 48 hours and 50 percent over seven days.

The outlook is the 8 a.m. product and still lists Cristobal under active systems as a recently downgraded tropical depression about 600 miles west of the Azores. The 11 a.m. advisory supersedes that with post-tropical status, and the figures for Cristobal in this item come from the advisory.

No tropical watch, warning or advisory is in force for Collier or Lee County. The only alerts active for either county on Thursday are heat advisories running to 7 p.m.

September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, four weeks from Thursday.

Cristobal is finished and the hurricane center has issued its last advisory on it, and the Cabo Verde system this desk has been calling the one to watch is now forecast to be killed off by shear and dry air by late Friday

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