Toyota has raised its full-year operating profit forecast by 400 billion yen, and the note under its own chart puts the increase at 60 billion once currency and swap effects come out
Under the waterfall chart on the thirteenth page of the presentation Toyota published on Tuesday is one line of small text. It says that excluding the overall impact of foreign exchange rates and swap valuation gains and losses, the increase is 60.0 billion yen.
The bar above it is 400 billion yen tall.
Toyota raised its forecast for the year to March 2027 alongside its first quarter results. Operating income is now put at 3,400 billion yen against the 3,000 billion it published previously. Sales revenues go to 54,000 billion yen from 51,000 billion, income before income taxes to 4,570 billion from 4,230 billion, and net income attributable to Toyota Motor Corporation to 3,250 billion from 3,000 billion. The dividend forecast does not move. It stays at 100 yen a share.
What the raise is made of
The company publishes the bridge from the old forecast to the new one, and it has five bars.
Effects of foreign exchange rates add 230.0 billion yen. Marketing efforts add 480.0 billion. Cost reduction efforts take away 120.0 billion, higher expenses take away 140.0 billion, and a residual the chart calls other takes away 50.0 billion. Toyota moved its currency assumption for the year at the same time, to 160 yen to the dollar from 150, and to 181 yen to the euro from 180.
The chart labels a Middle East impact twice, at 105.0 billion yen and 55.0 billion yen. Both are positive, because this bridge measures the new forecast against the old one rather than against last year. On the results summary page the company puts its own reason for that alongside the currency assumption, naming marketing efforts that include the establishment of alternative logistics routes to the Middle East.
Even after the increase, the forecast is for a smaller year. Toyota earned 3,766.2 billion yen of operating income in the twelve months to March 2026, and the summary states the new full-year figure as a fall of 9.7 percent against it.
The quarter, and the gap between two lines
Sales revenues for April to June came in at 13,525.4 billion yen, an increase of 1,272.0 billion or 10.4 percent.
Operating income fell. It came in at 1,063.4 billion yen, down 102.6 billion or 8.8 percent, and the operating margin went from 9.5 percent to 7.9. Net income attributable to Toyota Motor Corporation went the other way, up 635.6 billion yen or 75.6 percent to 1,477.0 billion, and income before income taxes rose 56.8 percent.
All of that divergence sits below the operating line. The presentation puts other income at 900.3 billion yen against 86.0 billion a year earlier, a change of 814.3 billion. In the income statement itself the line that moves is other finance income, from 153,721 million yen to 850,594 million. The notes to the same filing record a change in the scope of consolidation during the period: 70 companies excluded, Hino Motors and its consolidated subsidiaries.
The quarter's own operating income bridge has the exchange rate adding 345.0 billion yen. It labels a Middle East impact twice as well, at minus 50.0 billion and minus 25.0 billion.
Where the vehicles went
Consolidated vehicle sales were 2,395 thousand units, down 17 thousand or 0.7 percent. Japan rose 8.9 percent to 524 thousand and overseas fell 3.1 percent to 1,870 thousand. The comparison is not like for like: a footnote records that the year-earlier quarter included 26 thousand Hino-brand vehicles and this one does not.
The regional table is where the war shows up. Middle East sales were 63 thousand units against 147 thousand.
North America went from an operating loss of 21.1 billion yen to operating income of 185.4 billion. Japan fell from 645.0 billion to 540.1 billion.
The line that is not in the forecast
An asterisk on the results summary page says the impact of the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake is currently under assessment and has not been reflected in the forecast.
The magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Kumamoto on 28 July, and this site has carried three items on its effect on chip plants in the prefecture since. Toyota has now put a raised full-year number on the record without one for it.
The buyback
Toyota set a share repurchase authorisation of up to 1 trillion yen and said it will cancel 200 million treasury shares.
It had already spent heavily in the quarter that closed. Repurchases of treasury stock ran to 3,656.9 billion yen between April and June, against 39.9 billion in the same three months of 2025, and shares issued and outstanding fell from 15,794,987,460 to 14,594,987,460. Cash and cash equivalents ended the quarter at 10,343.1 billion yen, down 2,316.5 billion.
