Oil above $85 complicates the ECB rate decision due on July 23

Mike Sheen at CNBC first reported on Wednesday that renewed hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz have reopened the question of what the European Central Bank does on July 23. Euro area inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, according to a Eurostat flash estimate, while energy costs rose 8.7% against June 2025 and core inflation held at 2.4%. Brent September futures traded above $85 a barrel early Wednesday, having traded closer to $70 last week. The Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate to 2.25% on June 11, from 2.00%. That was its first increase in nearly three years. Market pricing points to roughly a 20% chance of another increase next week. Second quarter growth data arrive July 30.